Indonesia is no longer an oil exporting country. For the past 10 years oil production has fallen steadily, as many of the fields are aging, and production has fallen from just under 1 million bpd (barrels per day) in 2010 to currently 660 thousand bpd. However the government seek to reverse this trend (to meet domestic demand) and raise production again to a level of 1 million bopd by 2030.

Level 1

Level 1 Low Scenario assumes crude oil production will continue to decline at the same average annual rate during the past 10 years, namely 3%. Under this scenario oil production is likely to decline from the 659 kbopd (thousand bpd) today to 501 kbopd in 2030, and 201 kbopd by 2060. However in the short term some additional crude oil production from newer fields is sufficient to maintain the flow of production at around 3%, and continue to meet some demand in the transportation and oil refinery sectors in particular.

Level 2

Level 2 Medium Scenario assumes that the decline in production continues and oil production in 2060 is projected to be 339 kbopd. However this also assumes there will be additional production of 130 kbopd from some fields such as the Cepu Block and Bukit Tua, and in some other fields where EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) systems are being applied such as in Tanjung 60 kbopd and Limau, and Minas fields contributing 184 kbopd by 2030.

Level 3

Level 3 Medium-High Scenario assumes oil production will decline to 683 kbopd in 2025 but will be increased to 752 kbopd by 2030 and peak at 907 kbopd in 2035. This will be generated by up to 21 new EOR projects coming on stream between 2030 and 2040, 50% of which will reach their peaks in 2031. These new projects will be encouraged by support from the Government in the form of permit simplification, improved data, access to new technology and tax incentives.

Level 4

Level 4 High Scenario assumes oil production will increase to 979 kbopd by 2030, and then to decline gradually to 40 kbopd in 2060. Similar Incentives will be applied as in Level 3, together with more attractive PSC contracts.

Natural Gas reserves in Indonesia are currently 60.61 tscf (trillion cubic feet), consisting of Proven Reserves 41.62 tscf and Potential Reserves of 18.99 tscf. The current annual production of natural gas is 6,693 mmscf.

Besides these conventional gas resources, Indonesia has potential reserves of non-conventional gas in the form of Coal Bed Methane (CBM) with estimated resources of 453 tcf and Shale Gas with estimated resources of 574 tcf. To date these have not been developed.

Natural gas in Indonesia has many uses and can generate value for the country in many ways through the application of a various strategies. These include adding value to this gas domestically rather than exporting it as a commodity, increasing the gas distribution system to expand access to gas across the country, and encouraging the development of gas resources, particularly in more remote locations to stimulate local economic development. Also gradually replacing the use of LPG with natural gas for residential use, given much of the LPG has to be imported now.

Finally, accelerating the development of the very large potential reserves of non-conventional gas could help meet the very large demand for gas in key sectors such as petroleum refining, fertilizer, petro-chemicals and in the power sector where this gas could substitute for coal.

Level 1

Level 1 Low Scenario assumes that natural gas production in 2060 is projected to be 2,033 mmscfd. Production in 2020 was 6,693 mmscfd and will reduce to about 5,069 mmscfd in 2030. There will be little or no new gas coming on stream.

Level 2

Level 2 Medium Scenario assumes natural gas production in 2060 will be 3,261 mmscfd by 2060. Production in 2020 of 6,693 mmscfd will increase to 8,132 mmscfd by 2030. This assumes that in year 2023 Jimbaran Tiung Biru will start production at 190 mmscfd, together with BP Tangguh Train 3 starting production at 700 mmscfd.

Level 3

Level 3 Medium-High Scenario assumes 2020 production of 6,693 mmscfd will increase to 8,790 mmscfd, with IDD coming on stream in mid 20’s with 844 mmscfd and Abadi Masela, which will increase the likelihood of other offshore projects such as East Natuna coming on stream, and encouraging the application of new technologies such as CCUS.

Level 4

Level 4 High Scenario assumes a higher level of production of natural gas close to 10,000 mmscfd by 2030. This will be generated by several new gas discoveries, and one or two CBM projects coming on stream, and one or more Shale Gas projects by 2040. This may also be driven by support from the government in the form of tax incentives, improved.